Papers of BAS

Abstracting / Indexing

Papers of BAS. Humanities and Social Sciences

Vol. 9, 2022, No. 2

Influence of the territorial specialization in economic activities

on the birth rate in Bulgaria

Nikolay Stoenchev, Elena Stefanova

Abstract. The territorial specialization in economic activities is related to the provision of work and income to the population, contributing to sustainable regional development, and should influence the birth rate, since both the economic status and the prospects of the territory exert their influence on population’s migration at a young age. The scope of this research encompasses the analysis of the strength and the direction of relationship between the coefficient of localization by economic activities - acting as a factor, and the fertility indicators (including the crude birth rate, the total fertility rate, the mean age of mothers at childbirth and the mean age of mothers at first childbirth by provinces) - acting as a result. The coefficient of localization was calculated in two variants: based on the number of employed individuals by economic activities and based on the gross added value produced, by economic sectors.

Official data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) were used, with the birth rate being matched with lag values of the factor. Significant dependencies between the studied figures were revealed, which allow to refine management decisions regarding the restructuring of the economy in a regional aspect with a view to a favourable impact on the birth process in a smooth, natural and perspective way.

Keywords: territorial specialization, coefficient of localization, crude birth rate, total fertility rate, mean age of mothers at childbirth, coefficients of correlation

JEL: J13